Stephen Curry – Warriors Huddle

April 17, 2024 — No Comments

It’s Time

By: Matt Anderson

The Golden State Warriors have missed the playoffs three times in the last five years.

This year's team sealed that stat with a complete no-show in Sacramento last night. While the "vibes" may have been better, the fact that that 2023-2024 Warriors were a ten seed proved the adage that if you are standing still, you're moving backwards. The same is going to be true this offseason. Oklahoma City, Houston, and Memphis are all going to be better next season. Denver, Minnesota, Dallas, Phoenix, New Orleans, and the Clippers are not going anywhere. That's ten teams right there. We don't even have to mention the Kings (who just thumped us) or the Lakers, who might take a step back due to player movement/age but could be just as good next year. It also does not factor in the Spurs taking a giant leap after year 1 of the Victor Wembanyama experience.

Last night's flame out is just another in a season-long line of signals that a drastic change is necessary for this franchise (and which your humble scribe has pointed out many times now). Afterwards, Stephen Curry told The Ringer: "I want to win. Plain and simple. It's not my job to make all of those decisions, but it's my job to hold people accountable...." This is as close to acting like Lebron that Steph will ever get, and it is telling he's reached that point. Whatever team employs 30 should be challenging for a title, and if they aren't they are doing him a disservice. And Steph is telling Joe Lacob and Mike Dunlevy, Jr. that.

It is now the front office's job to respond to that message. There are only two responses that will be acceptable here. The first, and the one with a percentage chance that is infinitesimally small, would be to ship Steph to a contender and start a full-scale rebuild. I'll say it again for the people in the back: that is not happening. The other response will be to do whatever it takes to win another title with Stephen Curry. Not win another title with Steph and Klay. Not win another title with Steph and Dray. Not win another title with Steph and Wiggins. Not win another title with Steph and anyone. It is Steph and Steph alone that matters.

There have been two massive problems plaguing this team since 2022. The first is inconsistency. Practically every player not named Steph is a yo-yo player. Some nights they look like they are absolutely critical to the success of the team. The next, you wonder why they are even playing. For some of these players, that is just the consequence of being young and inexperienced in the NBA (e.g., Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Brandin Podziemski) . For others, it's the consequence of being old in the NBA (see, Klay Thompson, Chris Paul, Kevon Looney). Some, this inconsistency is because of their availability (like Draymond, or Gary Payton II). Others, it is baffling like Andrew Wiggins and Moses Moody (though that is less on him and more on Steve Kerr).

The second problem is that there is no second. This last month of the season, Steph looked exhausted more times than he should. For the current iteration of this team, given the discussed inconsistencies, Steph, at 36 years old, has to carry a massive scoring and creating load. If this team is going to be successful in the near-term, they need to find a second player who can take the ball and make the offense go. This is obviously easier said than done, given the financial state of the team. And that is what is going to make this summer so difficult for the front office and Warriors fans.

Moves have to be made. And some of those moves are going to have to be painful. One of the most frustrating things about this past season was the feeling that if we could just get everyone playing at a B+ or better, this team would be great. But the sample size is large enough to see that most of our players cannot be a B+ or better every night. And that makes life exhausting for the only A+ on the roster. I love Klay Thompson. He is my favorite Warrior ever. But the team really needs to think long and hard about how much his dwindling talent and lack of ability to show up in the post season is worth. Draymond may be the heartbeat of the team, but Dunleavy needs to consider whether we want to keep playing with that fire or if we sell while he's sellable. GP2 is a great story, but is his unavailability a problem? Kuminga took a leap this year, and we need to figure out if that leap should be parlayed into someone who can contribute to a title right now.

All of this must be done with the backdrop of the new financial rules. Ducking the second apron is a must. Getting out of the tax would be phenomenal. But the over all goal has to be clear: these moves have been made to win a title.

Published by Matt Anderson in Uncategorized

Tags: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Joe Lacob, Jonathan Kuminga, Klay, Klay Thompson, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry

March 27, 2024 — No Comments

Play-In Placebo

By Matt Anderson

As of publication, the Golden State Warriors have a one game lead (plus the tiebreaker) over the hard-charging Houston Rockets (winners of 9 of their last 10 games) for the tenth and final spot in the NBA's Play-In Tournament. The Warriors have been slumping since Stephen Curry went out with an ankle injury at the end of the March 7 game against the Bulls. The team went 1-3 without him (including an embarrassing 13 point loss to at Spurs team without Victor Wembanyama or Devin Vassell at Chase Center). They have gone 3-3 since he's been back. Those three losses: a listless performance against an undermanned Knicks, a no-show in a must-win against the Pacers, and another blown fourth quarter lead in Minneapolis.

A few weeks ago, Dub Nation was doing the math on getting a sixth seed. Now, we are crossing our fingers and toes hoping the team has just enough gas left in the tank to hold off a young and hungry Houston team. For what, though? To go to Crypto.com Arena and have the season ended by Lebron James and the Lakers? To maybe win two play-in games on the road for the privilege of being swept by a Denver team that doesn't sweat to beat the Warriors anymore?

Some may argue that this team has a puncher's chance because they have Steph Curry or that any playoff-like experience will help youngsters like Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, or Trayce Jackson-Davis. And that may be true (at least the latter part). But getting the 10 seed might also do more harm than good.

Two years ago, the Warriors hoisted their fourth banner in eight years. It was my favorite title because it proved so many nay-sayers wrong, particularly with regards to Steph's ability to lead a team to the promised land. But since that title we have had: The Punch, Wiggins disappearing (literally and figuratively), Klay struggling with his mortality; more Draymond violence; Steph injuries; Chris Paul injuries; and, most importantly, the unfortunate sudden passing of Dejan Milojevic. Then there is also the phenomenon of players/teams who can't hit the broadside of a barn from three lighting us up, or 8th men having career nights against us, or countless games blown at the last minute.

It seems that since the confetti dropped in TD Garden in June 2022, the Warriors have had rotten luck. But, nearly two years is not bad luck. And to quote the late great Obi Wan Kenobi: "in my experience, there's no such thing as luck." At some point that "bad luck" is not bad luck, but the result of organizational failures. Failure to understand the role of big men in today's NBA. Failure to timely develop younger players. Failure to adopt a defensive scheme that accounts for improved three-point shooting. Failure to play with consistency or urgency. From top to bottom, the Warriors have had a hand in their own demise.

A postseason appearance could cloud an honest self assessment. Last year's whimper of a title defense was chalked up to bad vibes. This year the vibes have been, by all accounts, great. Yet, the team is essentially performing the same. I wrote back in December that the franchise was at a turning point, and some of the issues were addressed. But, it turns out, those issues were only the start of the problem, because the new configuration of the team is just as inconsistent and lackadaisical as the old. The franchise needs a rude awakening, and missing the post season entirely could be just that. It will force the club to declare its intentions for the next half decade. Will the push every button and flip every lever to put a team around Steph worthy of competing for a fifth ring? Will they ride Steph, Klay, and Dray into a sunset of mediocrity? Or will they close the book on the Dynasty and begin building the next iteration of this team?

As a fan, I want this team to clearly message what it is doing. Without tough introspection, I fear they will continue to flail around hoping that small moves on the edges will somehow drastically change the .500 team we've watched the last two years. That's why missing the play-in and the sugar coating it would allow might be the best thing for the Warriors. Anything that would give the front office, coaching staff, or players to hide from their roles in the recent mediocrity is bad for the team.

The current version of the Warriors is very far away from being a Western Conference Finals team, much less a champion. Consequently, marginal moves are unlikely to change that. So if missing the play-in is what it takes to convince every level of the organization to make the big moves necessary to put us back into contention, then that is a good thing.

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Andrew Wiggins, Chris Paul, Draymond Green, Joe Lacob, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

January 8, 2024 — No Comments

SOS: Trades to Save Our Season

By: Matt Anderson

In the midst of a disastrous homestand that saw the Golden State Warriors barely squeak by the worst NBA team of all time, the Detroit Pistons, and put up a putridly atrocious performance against a mediocre Toronto Raptors team, it is clear that this team is going nowhere fast. The Dubs are 17-19, sitting outside the play-in picture at 11th. Compounding matters, they don't have their first-round 2024 pick this year unless it's in the top 4. But there are 11 teams with a worse record than them, so it would take a lottery miracle to jump that high.

Currently the team is plagued by underachievement, an inability to play defense (especially in transition), reckless turnovers, and a coaching staff that is still too stubborn to bench the shitty veterans in favor of young players who are actually playing well.* As I wrote a month ago, things need to change. The difference now is that it is clear this roster is not going to make those changes as currently constructed.

*Here's a fun stat: Jonathan Kuminga has never played 30 minutes or more in consecutive games as a Warrior, despite being the second best player on the team this year.

We are officially one month from the trade deadline, so now is the time to put together some fake trades that might save the season, or at the least, begin to set the table for a better 2024-2025 campaign. Here are some of those fake trades.

Finally Do the Siakam Deal

It feels like the Pascal Siakam to the Warriors rumor has been circulating for a while. After the OG Anuoby trade, people seem to think Toronto are sellers. Here's the best version of that trade from the Warriors prospective would look like:

Warriors get: Pascal Siakam

Raptors get: Chris Paul's expiring and JK

In theory, this is a great trade. Siakam has been an All-Star/All NBA caliber player in the past. He can score, play defense, and has been in some big games. In practice, I hate this trade. First, Siakam is an expiring who will want max money. So, this is probably a four month rental that puts the Warriors as a second round playoff team at best. Siakam cannot shoot anymore (sub 30% on 3s on almost 4 attempts per game), so fitting him next to Draymond (assuming Draymond doesn't get suspended for the rest of the year) is tough. You also don't really help the log jam of players that is messing up the rotations. Giving up on Kuminga for this just does not feel worth it to me.

Raid the Bulls

Part of the Warriors' problem this year is they are middling on both offense and defense. Steph has to be everything for this team to score, and he's about to be 36. One solution would be to get him a guy who can score score score to lighten the load. That's where we get the Zach LaVine trade. But I don't think LaVine moves the needle a ton for this team, so why not get a proven defender from a team that is (theoretically) selling off assets.

Warriors get: LaVine and Alex Caruso

Bulls get: CP3, JK, Moses Moody, and Gary Payton II

This trade also clears out the rotational problems. You get a proven scorer in LaVine who might live up to his contract in a Steph-centered environment. You also get Caruso who can take CP3's place leading the second unit, shoots the ball decently well, and has the size and grit to lock down perimeter players. The Warriors may have to part with some draft capital to make this work, but given LaVine's massive contract and the fact that the entire Chicago organization seems to be done with him, it might not be as heavy of a draft sell as one may think.

Get a Two-Way Wiz

The Washington Wizards have proven to be a team that will deal with the Warriors. They are clearly going nowhere, and the Jordan Poole/Kyle Kuzma combo is not reaping huge benefits. So, maybe they will want to help their rebuild by dealing with the Dubs again.

Warriors get: Kyle Kuzma

Wizards get: JK, Moody, GP2, and Kevon Looney

That is a lot of players for Kuzma. But the Warriors have too many players (especially underperforming/injured vets like Loon and GP2). Kuzma is a great defender and has the IQ and offensive game that would flourish in the Warriors' movement-based system.

Hope Utah Says "Fuck it, let's bail"

It is really unclear what Utah's long-term plan is for their roster. They have a ton of draft capital and some great young pieces. It could be debated that 26 year old Lauri Markkanen is an excellent piece to build around. But at the same time, he's not going to be the best player on a championship team. So, maybe the Jazz are willing to part with him? If so, here's how the Warriors could get him:

Warriors get: Markkanen

Jazz get: JK, Moody, Loon, 2025 pick swap, 2026 first rounder (with light protections), 2028 first rounder

Markkanen immediately adds size and skill to this team. He can stretch the floor, so he and Draymond can play together well. Shipping out three players would also firm up the rotations. You would have the clear starting unit of Steph, Klay, Wiggins, Drayond, Lauri and a closing group based on Steph, Draymond, Lauri, and whoever the matchup dictated. You'd keep CP3 to help TJD, Pods, and Saric continue their great form. In all, this would be a huge win for the Warriors. The problem is, however, that if Markkanen were available, there's a team that could probably beat that offer.

Wild Swing for the Fences

This is the most unlikely trade here, but I think of it as a bit of a masterpiece. The Brooklyn Nets are in limbo right now. They have some talented players on their roster, and for a hot second it looked like they had their centerpiece in Mikal Bridges. But, this year has shown that maybe Bridges is not a number one guy. He's maybe a second guy. What if the Nets decide to cash in while his stock is relatively high and get younger. Then the Warriors could offer a pretty good package that would help the Nets both get younger and clear out some guys who aren't on that young timeline:

Warriors get: Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Nic Claxton's expiring

Nets get: CP3, Looney, JK, Moody, a 2025 pick swap, 2026 first round, 2027 pick swap, 2028 first round

This is a real swing for the fences. It mortgages the entire future for win-now pieces. Bridges is young compared to our core, but he's about to enter his prime. DFS is the perfect 3 and D piece for the Warriors' system. Claxton adds size and athleticism we have not had since JaVale McGee. The Nets get off of long-term money for guys who are nearing 30 by bringing in two guys under 22 who can play with Cam Thomas and Day'Ron Sharpe, the Nets more promising young guys. They tried a quick reset in the wake of the Kyrie/Harden/KD fiasco, but this really lets them go into a youth/talent centered rebuild with additional draft capital to work with. Is this trade likely? No. But it would be exactly what is needed to give this Warriors team life over the next two years.

Photo credit: Jose Carlos Fajardo/Bay Area News Group

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Andrew Wiggins, Chris Paul, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry

January 7, 2024 — No Comments

Dubs Debrief: Drama, Injury, & Trade Talks… And Draymond is (Almost) Back!

In the last 72 hours, SO much has happened with the Warriors -- Both on the floor, and off. Let's dive into it:

Jan 4: Warriors Collapse in Dramatic Fashion to Denver Nuggets

In what is rivaled by only the in-season tournament game vs SAC as the "worst" loss of the year, the Warriors crumbled against Jokic and the defending-champion Nuggets on Thursday night at Chase Center.

The irony here is that, for three quarters, this game was shaping up to potentially be the best win of the season. The Dubs had one of their coveted dominant third quarters, outscoring Denver 44-24. However in the fourth, the Warriors were outscored 34-20, with a stagnant stretch summed up by a 25-4 run for the Nuggets.

Steve Kerr's coaching ability has been on the hot seat as of late, and critics smelled blood Thursday night as the Warriors' shot caller sat Jonathan Kuminga on the bench for the final 18 minutes of the game. Prior to his benching, Kuminga was up to 16 PTS, 4 REB, and 4 AST -- all the while hunting Denver's star PG Jamal Murray and getting him into foul trouble.

The matchup was eventually capped off by a signature Jokic rainbow-three as the Nuggets punted the Warriors at the buzzer. It turned out, this loss was the straw that broke the camel's back...

Jan 5: Jonathan Kuminga "lost faith" in Steve Kerr

The Athletic's Shams Charania dropped an Absolute bombshell Friday morning following the Nuggets loss, with the headline reading "Warriors’ Jonathan Kuminga has lost faith in coach Steve Kerr" (via: The Athletic). The online discourse following the post was heavily in favor of the young Warriors wing:

Fans were also quick to take JK's side:

It's long been clear that Kerr is hesitant to develop young players, instead favoring proven vets that have won titles. In a vacuum, it's tough to argue with this logic, right? However in the Warriors' case, the proven vets (read: Wiggins, Klay, Looney) have been playing below, in some cases far below, their ability this season. During this stretch, young and talented players like Kuminga, Moses Moody, and Trayce Jackson-Davis surely could have bailed the Warriors out on more than one occasion. But Kerr remained stubborn and coached the Warriors to their demise while the answers were literally sitting on the bench.

With Kuminga's sentiments being made public to social media, it was clear that he either wants his situation to change, or he wants to be playing with a different name on the front of his jersey.

Here are Steph's thoughts on the Kuminga/Kerr situation:
"I’ve been there before, he’s not wrong in being upset and pissed off, wanting to play," Curry said. "[He] probably should have played – not probably, actually [should have played]." (via NBC Sports Bay Area)

Stephen Curry is on JK's side. He's proud of the rook for voicing his frustration, and firmly believes he should be playing more, too.

Jan 5: Warriors Scrape By vs League-Worst Pistons; Kuminga Season-High Minutes, Paul Injured, Moody Summoned

The Warrior's win over the league-worst Detroit Pistons thanks to Steph Curry's 4th quarter heroics was probably the least interesting thing that happened Friday night.

Following Kuminga's comments to the media, it became known that Kuminga and Kerr had a discussion later in the day on Thursday and were able to clear the air. According to Anthony Slater, Kuminga even said "I love it here" following the conversation. Take that as you will... there may be some sarcasm in there, but it calms the storm for now. And, as a result, JK played a season high 35:38 minutes. In this stretch, he recorded 11 PT and 4 REB on a team-high +/- of 16.

After leaving the game due to his hand getting stuck in a Pistons player's jersey, Warrior's second-unit captain Chris Paul was diagnosed with a fracture to his hand. Paul's camp announced that he will undergo surgery.

As mentioned above by our favorite Doc, Nirav Pandya, Paul could be out anywhere from 4-12 weeks, depending on the location and severity of the fracture.

As sure as death and taxes, this means more minutes for Cory Joseph in CP3's absence. On the bright side, it also means more minutes for Moses Moody, who received a summoning from the Warriors home crowd on Friday night as fans chanted "Mooooody" for a solid 90-second stretch. Moody is no stranger to Kerr's stubborn coaching, who despite high-effort defense and timely shot making, has racked up a streak of DNP's - much to fans' dismay. Kerr was essentially bullied into playing Mo against the Pistons, and it's about damn time.

Trade Rumors

According to Michael Grange of sportsnet.ca, the Warriors are still reluctant to move Jonathan Kuminga for star Raptors wing Pascal Siakam, who has been linked to the Dubs as early as last season. It's become evidently clear that while Steve Kerr may not believe in JK's full potential, the Dubs' front office certainly does. With this in mind, it's more likely that Andrew Wiggins would be included in a package to Toronto. Wiggs is from Canada, after all.

Other names to look out for on the trade market are Zach Lavine of the Bulls and Lauri Markkanen of the Jazz, who have both been linked to Golden state over the last week. Markkanen is a near perfect fit, given his size and effortless scoring ability that will substantially increase floor spacing next to Steph. Lavine is talented but a less-ideal fit, due to his high usage rate and the need for the ball to be in his hands to reach peak effectiveness.

One dark horse team to watch is the Brooklyn Nets, who could offer the Warriors a strong defensive big man in Nic Claxton and/or a reliable role player in Spencer Dinwiddie. This is unlikely, though, as the Dubs are already full of depth, and have a promising young and talented big in Trayce Jackson-Davis. What the Dubs really need is a star number two option for Steph.

Because the names mentioned above are all desirable to any contending team, they won't be cheap. The Warriors will need to make tough decisions regarding moving young talent or beloved vets as trade talks continue to heat up with the deadline just four weeks away.

Draymond is (Almost) Back!

According to Shams, Draymond has served his time and is ready to suit up in a Warriors uniform again. It's been reported that Green has not been practicing with the squad since his suspension 12 games ago, so we'll see how long it takes him to get his conditioning back. Love it or hate it, the Warriors miss #23 on the court, and their defense will benefit immensely. A key lineup combo to watch will be Draymond + TJD, who will have a potentially dominant defensive ceiling.

Next Up: Siakam & The Raptors

The timing couldn't be more perfect -- the number one linked name to Golden State will be hooping in San Francisco on Sunday night. With the whirlwind of trade rumors, lineup logjams and general buzz surrounding the Warriors over the last week, the Dubs facing off against Siakam is a must-watch. Tune in at 6:30p PST and be sure not to blink, lest you miss another juicy headline story unfold before your eyes. Oh, and it should be a good game, too.

Published by Tanner Gardner | @tannergardner_ on Twitter in Blog

Tags: Chris Paul, Denver Nuggets, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Nikola Jokic, Pascal Siakam, Shams Charania, Stephen Curry, Steve Kerr, Toronto Raptors, Trayce Jackson-Davis, Utah JAzz

December 4, 2023 — 1 Comment

Quarter Season Check-In: Two Roads

By: Matt Anderson

We are twenty games and practically a quarter of the way through the 2023-24 NBA season, which is an excellent time to perform a high-level diagnoses of how the Warriors are doing. Let's start with the hard numbers: they are 9 and 11, 11th in the West. They have an offensive rating of 114.8 (13th), a defensive rating of 114.4 (16th), and a net rating of +0.3 (17th). These numbers are a pretty apt descriptor of a very "meh" performance by the team so far this year.

As listeners to the popular soccer podcast, Men in Blazers, know, there is a German word for "turning point," Wendepunkt. It feels, a quarter of the way through the season that the franchise is at its Wendepunkt. The team started 6-2 despite a brutal schedule that saw them play 8 games in 7 different cities with two back-to-backs thrown in for good measure. They also survived either the literal or figurative absence of Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green. Since then, the team is 3-9 and has blown leads of 17, 24, and 22 to teams they allegedly will be competing with for a playoff spot. This recent nosedive in performance has prompted the question: Do the Warriors stay true and loyal to the core that won them three titles, regardless of the results, out of respect and reverence? Or is it time to make some people uncomfortable in the hopes of securing another banner?

This Warriors team is older, smaller, less athletic, and slower, than most teams in the NBA. Where they will win is savvy, guile, and experience. So far, however, they have not utilized that advantage. They still turn the ball over way too much. They still foul too much. Many would say that the fouling issue is due to the lack of athleticism, but I would argue they are smart enough to defend without fouling despite that deficit. The problem is that it is the veterans who have been just as guilty as the youngsters of these issues. And this could be where Coach Steve Kerr's philosophy of yanking younger players at the slightest whiff of a mistake has started to act like a double-edged sword. It has conditioned the likes of Jonathan Kuminga and Moses Moody to make smart plays and hustle plays. But at the same time, it has given Steph, Klay, Dray, and Wiggins a greenlight to play however they would like with no fear of consequences. This has led to sloppy turnovers, selfish shot-hunting, lack of hustle, and unhinged behavior on the part of a certain veteran.

For years, this reliance on the vets was a sound strategy; they were simply better than the younger players. But for the first time, that may not be the case. Moody, JK, and Brandin Podziemski have all shown that they are strong, capable players willing to do the little things for the team to succeed. They fight hard every possession and execute well when given the opportunities. Yet, as the recent flameout versus Sacramento showed, that might not matter. Moody had a hot hand as the game tightened, yet he was still taken out in favor of a veteran who provided precisely zero points in the fourth quarter. This not only may have cost the Warriors a much-needed win, but undermined the entire Steve Kerr philosophy of "close with the players of have earned it that night."

It is clear that something needs to change with this Warriors team if the goal is to win as many titles as possible. Is that a trade? Maybe, but that is some very complicated calculus that depends on a lot of factors outside of the team's control (namely, the willingness of another team to make a deal). There are, however, things the team can control that could provide that Wendepunkt. It starts with having tough conversations with the veterans. They need to know they will be held accountable for their detrimental actions, that they are not untouchable. Many have speculated that the team cannot do that because, for example, Klay's ego is too fragile. The man, who is known for his Game 6 do-or-die heroics, who has won four titles, and who has come back from two absolutely devastating leg injuries does not have a fragile ego. People claiming he is not tough enough to handle tough love and demanding standards are not giving him nearly enough credit. Similarly with Draymond, he may think he is untouchable after getting a new contract post-punch. But if his antics continue to be toxic, the team can bench him, and he has no recourse. No team will trade for him; so, it will be shape up or sit down.

In short, if the Warriors want to have even a faint shot at a title, they need to make drastic changes led by their veterans. They need to put all of their energies into playing the smartest, most connected basketball they can. Because they will need every ounce of experience and familiarity to make up for the clear lack of ability to physically match the best teams in the league. They showed they can do it back in 2022. The question remains as to whether that was the last gasp for this group, or if a change in how they've played the last 1.25 seasons can bear the same fruit.

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Joe Lacob, Jonathan Kuminga, Klay Thompson, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry, Steve Kerr

November 1, 2023 — No Comments

Steph Curry & the Chris Paul-led Second Unit Send Warriors Soaring Passed Pelicans

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Tanner Gardner | @tannergardner_ on Twitter

On the back of Stephen Curry’s second 40+ point performance in four games, the Warriors dominate both ends of the floor in New Orleans, hoisting up a 130-102 victory to reach a perfect 3-0 road record – a feat they did not accomplish once last season. Yep, you read that right – in just the fourth game of the season, the ’23-’24 Dubs already have accrued a larger road win streak than they did at any point in ’22-’23.

Luckily for the Warriors, this can be attributed to a few factors...

According to Steph himself, he is off to the second hottest start of his entire career, behind only his unanimous MVP campaign in 2105-’16 where he put up 40, 25, 53, and 30 PTS in the first four games. This season, number 30 is off to a similarly scorching start, with 27, 41, 24, and 42 PTS on 56/46/92% splits. Curry also mentioned that seeing “good basketball” being played while he’s off the court is a mental motivator and helps keep him energized late into these last few games. Even at 35, Steph is easily still a top 3 player in basketball.

To highlight the depth of this squad, the second unit is making its case to be the best supporting cast in the league. Trayce Jackson-Davis looked comfortable and poised in his second NBA stint, posting 13 PTS, 9 REB, and 4 BLK in just under 20 minutes of play. Gary Payton II looks fully recovered from his core/abdominal injury that had limited his explosiveness since playing a key role in the Warriors iconic ’21-’22 title run. Moses Moody once again lived up to his reputation of “staying ready”, topping off a solid performance as a starter in Klay Thompson’s spot with a tough second-chance basket and foul late in the second half.

Most importantly though, is Chris Paul exceeding even an optimist’s prediction of what the second unit would look like should he agree to come off the bench this year. In just two games as a 6th man of the year hopeful, the Point God is averaging a ridiculous +/- of +19.5. Such a margin would be impressive even for a starting point guard surrounded by their first unit. CP3’s presence as a floor general is tough to overstate; In this road back-to-back vs HOU and NOP, Paul has accumulated 12 assists and just 2 turnovers while averaging 26 MPG. Paul's deliberate and intentional play style slows the game down -- this limits the amount of possessions for both teams, preventing opponents from building large leads with Steph off the floor. But, with Paul's success in winning the non-Steph minutes in his first two games off the bench, his methodical approach can quickly become a positive rather than a negative or neutral. The fact that Paul has elevated the second unit to this level and we’re not even November yet may make injuries the only thing standing between this year’s Warriors team and a 5th championship.

Look for this rejuvenated Warriors group to come out hot tomorrow at 7PM @ Chase Center, as they take on Mike Brown and the De’Aaron Fox-less Sacramento Kings.

Published by Tanner Gardner | @tannergardner_ on Twitter in Blog

Tags: Chris Paul, GPII, Jonathan Kuminga, Moses Moody, Stephen Curry, Trayce Jackson-Davis

September 28, 2023 — No Comments

Jrue to the Dubs?

By: Matt Anderson

The dust from yesterday's block busting, Woj bomb of Damian Lillard to the Milwaukee Bucks has not even settled yet, but the NBA coconut telegraph is already starting to speculate on what happens to Jrue Holiday. Holiday was a key piece of the deal for salary purposes, going to Portland, where his veteran presence has already been deemed surplus. It makes sense, the Blazers are looking to start fresh around the trio of Anfernee Simons, Shaedon Sharpe, and number two pick Scoot Henderson. Holiday, who is set to make at least $36.8 million this coming season, would either disrupt the development of those three or provide a level of competency that would push Portland closer to the playoffs than the lottery (which is presumably where they are trying to be as part of the rebuild). Also, earlier this year, Holiday told Andre Iguodala's Point Forward Podcast that he was considering retirement after his contract expires in 2025. One has to imagine that means Holiday is in win-now mode, not help a(nother) franchise rebuild. As a result, the scuttlebutt is that the Blazers will be looking to offload Holiday to a contender.

Indeed, one prominent NBA writer has already speculated that the Warriors would (or should) be in the market for the 33 year-old defensive menace. In a vacuum, a trade for Holiday makes sense for the Dubs. They have the pieces to make it work in Chris Paul's $30.8 million and Jonathan Kuminga's $6.0 million. Holiday is five years younger, is an exponentially better defender, and is not the kind of player to ask a reporter if "[she] coaching." Holiday could slot into the second unit as an excellent offensive facilitator and lock down the best guards in the league. His two-way skills would be crucial on a nightly basis, especially in the playoffs. Golden State also would not have to worry about overburdening him on offense because the team could always pair him with Steph, Klay, or Wiggins. On paper, it seems like a great idea.

But in reality, it just does not seem to be in the Warriors' best interest. Part of the reason the team traded Jordan Poole for Chris Paul was financial: Paul's contract for next year is totally non-guaranteed until the end of June. Ducking the second apron and re-signing Klay are the team's top two off-court priorities between now and next summer, and having the flexibility to completely shed $30 million in salaries is a key piece of that. Holiday, on the other hand, has a player option for $39.4 million next summer. If the Dubs acquired him, then one of two things happens. One: he opts in because he played so poorly he can't get a better deal in a incredibly weak free agent class. In this scenario, the Dubs not only would probably not want him, it would probably foreclose any Klay contract (barring an incredibly steep discount or truly horrible season by Klay). Two: he opts out and the Warriors cannot afford to keep him (or are forced to choose between him and Klay). At least with CP3, given his age, there is a small chance that the team can waive the final year of his contract and convince him to take a deal that allows them to still sign Klay.

There are other important reasons why trading for Jrue would not be the best idea. The Warriors have done a lot of work over the summer to integrate Paul into the team. The players, coaches, and front office have fully embraced one of Dub Nation's most hated rivals. Similarly, the team has gone to great lengths to pump up Kuminga in an effort to not only maximize the player, but also shed the label that they cannot develop talent. Trading CP3 and JK now undoes all of that. Remember in 2017 when the Celtics traded Isaiah Thomas for Kyrie Irving after Thomas led the team to the Eastern Conference Finals on a bad hip and after his sister unexpectedly died? The ruthlessness of that trade affected the Celtics' ability to lure stars for years afterwards. If the Warriors punt on James Wiseman, Jordan Poole (after being a key piece to a title and getting punched by Draymond), CP3 (who has not even put on the jersey yet), and Kuminga in a seven-month span, that might have the same deleterious effects to the organization. And everything we have seen since Lacob took over is that the Golden State Warriors want to be seen as a player-friendly organization.

So, while Jrue Holiday would be an excellent fit in Golden State, fans need to remember that this is not 2k. There are real life, bigger picture ramifications for every move. For those reasons, I would urge Warriors fans to temper their expectations regarding any blockbuster trades in the near future.

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Chris Paul, Jrue Holiday, Klay, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

August 22, 2023 — No Comments

Five Stretches That Will Make or Break the Season

By: Matt Anderson

Last week, the NBA released its schedule for all the teams. Was it weird that they tried to make an event out of a schedule that covers 1,230 games played over eight months? Yes. But that does not mean I did not immediately pull up the Warriors' schedule and start the analysis. My first impression was that the schedule makers did not do this team any favors. As NBC Sports Bay Area's Dalton Johnson pointed out, the Dubs have 15 back-to-back games, the most in the league (for the second year in a row), and the fourth year in a row they've had that many.

I started my analysis with the goal of picking 3-5 games to circle on the calendar and opine as to why they might be big games. But the more I looked at it, the more the "key game" had to be framed by what was scheduled before or after. So instead of key games, I found five key stretches of the season. Without further ado, here are those stretches (listed chronologically):

October 24-November 14: vs. PHX, @SAC, @HOU, @NOP (B2B), vs. SAC, @OKC (NBA Cup), @CLE, @DET (B2B), @DEN, vs. CLE, vs. MIN (2x)(NBA Cup). This is an absolutely brutal opening stretch of games. We start the season in Chase against the newly formed triumvirate of KD, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beale. Then we have 7 of the next 8 on the road, with the lone home game being against last season's first round opponent, the Kings. It includes yet another second night of a back-to-back in New Orleans (I cannot remember the last time we played in New Orleans with any rest whatsoever). The Warriors play their first NBA Cup game in OCK during this stretch. We get a second road/road back-to-back, and a visit to the defending champs, the Denver Nuggets. Then the stretch ends with three games in four nights. Two of these games are against newly minted superstar Ant Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The second of these is our first NBA Cup home game. If this team has the same road woes as last year, this stretch could put them in a hole they can never get out of. If the Warriors do more than just survive this stretch, then the league should be on notice.
December 12-19: @PHX, @LAC, vs. BKN, @POR (B2B), vs. BOS. This stretch of 5 games in 8 nights comes after what could be a 10-day break for the NBA Cup (or it could come after a 5-day break, if the Dubs make the Cup Final). But this stretch includes a home/road back-to-back, 3 games against title aspirants, and it culminates in the always tough Boston Celtics coming to Chase for a Tuesday night national showcase game. This stretch will test the Warriors mettle and conditioning for sure.
January 12-17: @CHI, @MIL (B2B), @MEM, @UTA. Anyone working for an NBA team will tell you that back-to-backs can be managed, but it's the dreaded 4 games in 5 nights that often lead a team to a turdburger performance. Well here is a prime example of that. All 4 of these games are on the road, and none of the travel is particularly easy. Making things more difficult is a date with Giannis and the Bucks on the second night of a back-to-back and an Martin Luther King, Jr. Day game against the Grizzlies in Memphis. Also, it is important to note that the Warriors play Dallas at home on the 19th; and as anyone who has listened to Bob Fitzgerald knows, that first home game after a long road trip is often another road game.
February 2-8: @MEM, @ATL, @BKN, @PHI, @IND. Another tough road trip for Golden State with 5 road games in 7 nights. In theory, all of these teams will be trying to make either the playoffs or the play-in. You could argue Brooklyn and Indiana won't be, which is fair. But, Indiana is one of those bogey teams the Warriors always seem to struggle to beat, no matter how bad they are. If the Warriors perform as poorly on the road as they did last year, this stretch will determine a lot for how the remainder of the season goes. Especially since this stretch will end the same day as the trade deadline (or thereabouts).
March 13-April 14: @DAL, @LAL, NYK, MEM, IND, @MIN, @MIA, @ORL (B2B), @CHA, @SAS, @DAL, @HOU, UTA, @LAL, @POR, NOP (B2B), UTA. The Warriors better hope that they are not fighting to make or avoid the play-in, because the last month of the season is the most brutal stretch imaginable. Only 6 of 17 games at home during this stretch, and at least 11 of these teams could be in a seeding battle. The final two back-to-backs are in this stretch, including a road/road one against the Florida teams (also note that they again play New Orleans on the second night of a back-to-back. That is the second time this season and the seventh time since the 2021-2022 season).

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga, Klay, NBA, Schedule, Stephen Curry

June 23, 2023 — 1 Comment

Warriors Free Agency Primer

By: Matt Anderson

Wow. Yesterday was one of the wildest days Warriors fans have experienced in the Lacob era. Gone are Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin, Jr., and Ryan Rollins. In are <gulp> Chris Paul, Brandin Poziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. These moves were as much about roster and salary management as they were about basketball. But that is not why we are here today. We are here to look at how Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Co. are going to fill out the roster.

As we have seen the last few years, these seemingly marginal moves can make all the difference in the outcome of the season. Two years ago, the Dubs absolutely nailed the Otto Porter, Nemanja Bjelica, Gary Payton III signings, and we won the title. Last year, was 50/50: Donte DiVincenzo was great; JaMychal Green, not so much. As a result, the Warriors had to rely too much on players who simply were not ready to play that kind of role on a championship team.

As of writing this, the Warriors officially have eight players under contract for next year. The hope is that number will be nine in the coming days, with Draymond Green deciding to re-sign with the team. It would be fantastic for DDV to take his player option, but he will probably command offers higher than $4.725 million. We can also bank on the two draftees signing roster contracts. In all likelihood, the Dubs will keep their 15th roster spot open to help save some tax money. Thus, we can realistically look at three free agent signings and two two-way signings. Though, if years past tell us anything, those two-way contracts won't be finalized until the last minute. Furthermore, the due to the new collective bargaining agreement, the Warriors can only sign players to veteran minimums. So, without further ado, here are some players that Warriors should try to sign.

T.J. Warren: Warren fits the OPJ model of player with immense talent that has been held back by injuries the last few years. Starting with the 2020-2021 season, Warren has played 4, 0, and 42 games. But when he's right, he's a great scorer and could slot in nicely in the second unit. In theory, he could replace a good portion of JP's scoring output.

Lonnie Walker IV: He shot 45/37/86, meaning he would be another possible JP second unit scorer replacement. He's not much of a rebounder or a defender, though. And we all know Steve Kerr expects that the bench players to do the little things if they want playing time. Also, signing him might be the Doc Rivers mistake of signing someone just because they had a good playoff game against you.

Austin Rivers: Speaking of the Rivers family.... Look, if we are going to sign players Dub Nation hates, why not catch 'em all. The younger Rivers is still a good defender and a respectable shooter. Kerr loves vets with high IQ, and Austin Rivers is one of those.

Frank Kamisky: Kamisky is another savvy player who does the little things. An eight-year vet who was once a top ten pick? He fits the Warriors mold of being able to coax production out of players many gave up on (see Wiggins, Andrew). As a bonus, Kamisky shot the three well last year after years of flirting with the ability to stretch the floor.

Dario Saric: Saric would be another "Celebrini" signing: a player that has been hampered by injuries recently that the Warrirors bank on thriving health-wise under Rick Celebrini's care. While he played the lowest minutes per game of his career last year, Saric shot 46/39/83. Add in his basketball IQ, and he could be a great back-up big.

Wenyen Gabriel: Gabriel is a tazmanian devil, playing with energy and heart. What he lacks in skill, he makes up for in hustle. Could he play a role like Javale McGee played for the Warriors? I think so.

Rodney McGruder: McGruder is a tough, hardnosed guard who had to scrap his way into the league. He came up through Miami, so he has that "Heat Culture" background. As a result, he does all the little things right, including playing tenacious defense. And while last year he was a great three point shooter, he's only been an average shooter through his career.

Torrey Craig: Craig might command more than a vet minimum, but if the Warriors could get him, that would be a steal. He stretches the floor, rebounds, and defends well, which would be perfect as a backup to Kevon Looney. He does, however, have a tendency to make head scratching plays, which we all know can get a player glued to Kerr's bench.

Yuta Watanabe: It's incredible that a guy who is under 30, shot over 40% from three, and is a plus defender is not only available, but projected to be a vet minimum player. Putting him on the floor with Steph and Klay would give him more open looks than he could ever dream of.

The Known Quantities: The Dubs could also bring back players we know all about. Last year, the vibes were off. Who better to reset that locker room than Juan Toscano-Anderson or Damion Lee? Why not roll the dice and see if Lester Quinones' fantastic G-League season was a fluke? I'm sure there are many in Dub Nation who would hate these moves, but they have some upside (and I will always have a soft spot in my heart for JTA).

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Draymond Green, Joe Lacob, Jordan Poole, Klay, Klay Thompson, Stephen Curry

May 16, 2023 — 1 Comment

What Comes Next?

By: Matt Anderson

The 2022-2023 Warriors did not defend their title. In fact, there were only a handful of moments this season where that even felt like a real possibility. Starting with The Punch, the vibes of this team felt completely off all year. The team played sloppily, displayed a surprising lack of urgency, and could rarely sustain any sort of positive momentum. I spent much of the season with feelings of distrust and frustration permeating my relationship with the one team I truly love.

The question now is what do the Warriors do next? The team has a truly ludicrous payroll and is about to face extremely stiff penalties under a new collective bargaining agreement. Owner Joe Lacob has said that he is not afraid to spend money on a title contending team. He has also stated that he wants to build a franchise like the San Antonio Spurs: one that is always in the conversation of elite franchises. That is where the "two timelines" plan came from.

But, one thing we learned the hard way this season is that the "two timelines" strategy is not working. I think there was an admission of that by trading James Wiseman. Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody are or can be useful players, but it remains to be seen if their usefulness will line up with the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green's ability to play at an elite level. So, Lacob has a choice: go for more titles with the Core Three or be content to be somewhere around the playoff/play-in bubble for the foreseeable future and keep developing young talent.

This should be an easy answer: the Warriors have a literal top 10 all time player in Steph, as well as two sure-fire Hall of Famers in Klay and Dray. Those three showed this year that there is still plenty of gas left in their collective tank. Combine that with last year's title, it is proof that with the right complimentary pieces, this team can be elite. The Warriors should go all-in for as many titles as they can get in the next three to four years. So, what needs to happen with the current roster to get this team back there? Let's go player by player.

First, There are four players that are untouchable right now: Steph, Klay, Dray, and Kevon Looney. Yes, the team needs to work out a new deal for Draymond this summer. But it should be priority one. Priority two should be getting an extension inked for Klay. Hopefully, these deals will be similar to what Andrew Wiggins took last year, which was less than the max. Every dollar they can save between Klay and Dray can be useful.

Speaking of Wiggins, he and Gary Payton II are in the next tier of players on this roster. We will call that tier the "Super Important, but Not Untouchable" tier. These guys are key to the team's success for the unglamorous things they do, especially on defense. Also, the team is super important to them, as Golden State is the place where they both unlocked their best selves. Wiggins and GP2 should be Warriors for at least the remainder of their deals, but the Front Office should not immediately hang up on any call asking about them. If moving them is the cost of getting a player who puts the team as an obvious title favorite, it should at least be considered.

Next, we have the 50/50 guys. These are JP, JK, Moody and Donte DiVincenzo. DDV is in this category because it's truly 50/50 on whether he will be back next year. He has a player option for next season, so he can opt out and become a free agent. If that happens, then the only chance the Warriors would have to retain his services are if no one else wants him and he comes back on a veteran's minimum. I just don't know if he played himself into a contract worth more than $4.725 million, so we can't say what he will do.

The other three are quite a different problem. The question for them is whether the team thinks they still have value on the floor, or if the value comes from who they can be move for. Poole is the fulcrum around which this group of three pivots. He clearly has talent; he averaged over 20 points per game. And, as Steph gets older, there is wisdom in having someone like the best version of JP to lighten Steph's load. But will this franchise ever see the best version of Poole again? The man undeniably works incredibly hard at his game. I have no doubt that whatever he wants, he can achieve. It is just entirely unclear what he wants. Did The Punch sour him on this franchise? Can he continue to coexist with Draymond? Does he want to be the team's Sixth Man, or does he want to be a number one option somewhere else? Does he want to commit to being at least a C+ defender? Only Jordan knows the answers to these questions, and those answers are crucial to what the Warriors do with him.

For JK and Moody, so much depends upon Poole because if the conclusion is that the team needs to move Poole, then they would and should be considered possible pieces to put in the deal. Both have shown enough at times to possibly entice a team looking to bring in a bunch of young, talented players. And given what we have seen from Kuminga and Moses, it would be fair to them to move them where they can play if the powers that be determine there is not a consistent, night-to-night role for them.

In short, Poole, Kuminga, and Moody are the three players the Warriors need to figure out to become contenders again. If there were a team with an older star that's looking to reboot itself around younger talent, these three could serve as enticing trade pieces. The problem is that Poole and Kuminga are probably at their lowest values right now after a dismal playoffs. The catch-22, however, is that if they start next season well enough to raise their stock, the Warriors probably would neither want nor need to trade them. It is a tricky situation that I do not envy this Front Office from trying to sort out.

The next tier consists of the players who are going to be on the roster whether we like it or not. That consists of two players: Patrick Baldwin, Jr. and Ryan Rollins. PBJ is actually intriguing, as a 6'9 wing who can theoretically shoot. I know Kerr is never a fan of young players, but I could see some positive minutes from him next year. The same cannot be said of Ryan Rollins. He was a second round flier that does not appear to have panned out. Oh well.

The penultimate tier is the two-way guys: Ty Jerome and Lester Quinones. As of right now, it appears the Warriors will have at least three roster spots to fill. Depending on what happens with the 50/50 guys, I could see Jerome being the back up point guard. He's a smart player who could provide steady, mistake-free minutes for Kerr. Quinones was pretty great in the G-League this year, averaging 21.8 points on 45/35/78 shooting, 7 rebounds and nearly 5 assists. He could provide value in spot minutes if he can keep up that general efficiency.

The last groups is what I'll call the "Thank You For Your Service" group. That earnestly applies to the retiring Andre Iguodala. We could have used a healthy Iggy in the playoffs this year, or his roster spot during the regular season. It sarcastically applies to JaMychal Green and Anthony Lamb. JG was what he's always been, a great role player on paper who never actually lived up to the hype. The less we say about Anthony Lamb, the better. The Warriors can find plenty of players who can hit threes at a slightly above average clip and miss defensive assignments that have not been sued for rape.*

*As a firm believer in appeasing the basketball gods, one cannot help but wonder if the cursed feeling of this season has a little bit to do with the inexcusable choice by the Front Office to employ someone involved in such atrocious allegations.

In short, as many smarter people have already written, the Warriors have a lot of soul searching to do this offseason. And that centers almost entirely around two decisions: (1) what to do with Draymond's contract; and (2) what to do with Poole, Kuminga, and Moody. The cool thing about all of this is that we will all get to see those answers play out over the next twelve months.

Published by Matt Anderson in Blog

Tags: Andre Igaudola, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Joe Lacob, Jonathan Kuminga, Jordan Poole, Klay, Stephen Curry

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