By Matt Anderson

As of publication, the Golden State Warriors have a one game lead (plus the tiebreaker) over the hard-charging Houston Rockets (winners of 9 of their last 10 games) for the tenth and final spot in the NBA's Play-In Tournament. The Warriors have been slumping since Stephen Curry went out with an ankle injury at the end of the March 7 game against the Bulls. The team went 1-3 without him (including an embarrassing 13 point loss to at Spurs team without Victor Wembanyama or Devin Vassell at Chase Center). They have gone 3-3 since he's been back. Those three losses: a listless performance against an undermanned Knicks, a no-show in a must-win against the Pacers, and another blown fourth quarter lead in Minneapolis.

A few weeks ago, Dub Nation was doing the math on getting a sixth seed. Now, we are crossing our fingers and toes hoping the team has just enough gas left in the tank to hold off a young and hungry Houston team. For what, though? To go to Crypto.com Arena and have the season ended by Lebron James and the Lakers? To maybe win two play-in games on the road for the privilege of being swept by a Denver team that doesn't sweat to beat the Warriors anymore?

Some may argue that this team has a puncher's chance because they have Steph Curry or that any playoff-like experience will help youngsters like Jonathan Kuminga, Brandin Podziemski, or Trayce Jackson-Davis. And that may be true (at least the latter part). But getting the 10 seed might also do more harm than good.

Two years ago, the Warriors hoisted their fourth banner in eight years. It was my favorite title because it proved so many nay-sayers wrong, particularly with regards to Steph's ability to lead a team to the promised land. But since that title we have had: The Punch, Wiggins disappearing (literally and figuratively), Klay struggling with his mortality; more Draymond violence; Steph injuries; Chris Paul injuries; and, most importantly, the unfortunate sudden passing of Dejan Milojevic. Then there is also the phenomenon of players/teams who can't hit the broadside of a barn from three lighting us up, or 8th men having career nights against us, or countless games blown at the last minute.

It seems that since the confetti dropped in TD Garden in June 2022, the Warriors have had rotten luck. But, nearly two years is not bad luck. And to quote the late great Obi Wan Kenobi: "in my experience, there's no such thing as luck." At some point that "bad luck" is not bad luck, but the result of organizational failures. Failure to understand the role of big men in today's NBA. Failure to timely develop younger players. Failure to adopt a defensive scheme that accounts for improved three-point shooting. Failure to play with consistency or urgency. From top to bottom, the Warriors have had a hand in their own demise.

A postseason appearance could cloud an honest self assessment. Last year's whimper of a title defense was chalked up to bad vibes. This year the vibes have been, by all accounts, great. Yet, the team is essentially performing the same. I wrote back in December that the franchise was at a turning point, and some of the issues were addressed. But, it turns out, those issues were only the start of the problem, because the new configuration of the team is just as inconsistent and lackadaisical as the old. The franchise needs a rude awakening, and missing the post season entirely could be just that. It will force the club to declare its intentions for the next half decade. Will the push every button and flip every lever to put a team around Steph worthy of competing for a fifth ring? Will they ride Steph, Klay, and Dray into a sunset of mediocrity? Or will they close the book on the Dynasty and begin building the next iteration of this team?

As a fan, I want this team to clearly message what it is doing. Without tough introspection, I fear they will continue to flail around hoping that small moves on the edges will somehow drastically change the .500 team we've watched the last two years. That's why missing the play-in and the sugar coating it would allow might be the best thing for the Warriors. Anything that would give the front office, coaching staff, or players to hide from their roles in the recent mediocrity is bad for the team.

The current version of the Warriors is very far away from being a Western Conference Finals team, much less a champion. Consequently, marginal moves are unlikely to change that. So if missing the play-in is what it takes to convince every level of the organization to make the big moves necessary to put us back into contention, then that is a good thing.