June 23, 20231 Comment

Warriors Free Agency Primer

By: Matt Anderson

Wow. Yesterday was one of the wildest days Warriors fans have experienced in the Lacob era. Gone are Jordan Poole, Patrick Baldwin, Jr., and Ryan Rollins. In are <gulp> Chris Paul, Brandin Poziemski, and Trayce Jackson-Davis. These moves were as much about roster and salary management as they were about basketball. But that is not why we are here today. We are here to look at how Mike Dunleavy, Jr. and Co. are going to fill out the roster.

As we have seen the last few years, these seemingly marginal moves can make all the difference in the outcome of the season. Two years ago, the Dubs absolutely nailed the Otto Porter, Nemanja Bjelica, Gary Payton III signings, and we won the title. Last year, was 50/50: Donte DiVincenzo was great; JaMychal Green, not so much. As a result, the Warriors had to rely too much on players who simply were not ready to play that kind of role on a championship team.

As of writing this, the Warriors officially have eight players under contract for next year. The hope is that number will be nine in the coming days, with Draymond Green deciding to re-sign with the team. It would be fantastic for DDV to take his player option, but he will probably command offers higher than $4.725 million. We can also bank on the two draftees signing roster contracts. In all likelihood, the Dubs will keep their 15th roster spot open to help save some tax money. Thus, we can realistically look at three free agent signings and two two-way signings. Though, if years past tell us anything, those two-way contracts won't be finalized until the last minute. Furthermore, the due to the new collective bargaining agreement, the Warriors can only sign players to veteran minimums. So, without further ado, here are some players that Warriors should try to sign.

T.J. Warren: Warren fits the OPJ model of player with immense talent that has been held back by injuries the last few years. Starting with the 2020-2021 season, Warren has played 4, 0, and 42 games. But when he's right, he's a great scorer and could slot in nicely in the second unit. In theory, he could replace a good portion of JP's scoring output.

Lonnie Walker IV: He shot 45/37/86, meaning he would be another possible JP second unit scorer replacement. He's not much of a rebounder or a defender, though. And we all know Steve Kerr expects that the bench players to do the little things if they want playing time. Also, signing him might be the Doc Rivers mistake of signing someone just because they had a good playoff game against you.

Austin Rivers: Speaking of the Rivers family.... Look, if we are going to sign players Dub Nation hates, why not catch 'em all. The younger Rivers is still a good defender and a respectable shooter. Kerr loves vets with high IQ, and Austin Rivers is one of those.

Frank Kamisky: Kamisky is another savvy player who does the little things. An eight-year vet who was once a top ten pick? He fits the Warriors mold of being able to coax production out of players many gave up on (see Wiggins, Andrew). As a bonus, Kamisky shot the three well last year after years of flirting with the ability to stretch the floor.

Dario Saric: Saric would be another "Celebrini" signing: a player that has been hampered by injuries recently that the Warrirors bank on thriving health-wise under Rick Celebrini's care. While he played the lowest minutes per game of his career last year, Saric shot 46/39/83. Add in his basketball IQ, and he could be a great back-up big.

Wenyen Gabriel: Gabriel is a tazmanian devil, playing with energy and heart. What he lacks in skill, he makes up for in hustle. Could he play a role like Javale McGee played for the Warriors? I think so.

Rodney McGruder: McGruder is a tough, hardnosed guard who had to scrap his way into the league. He came up through Miami, so he has that "Heat Culture" background. As a result, he does all the little things right, including playing tenacious defense. And while last year he was a great three point shooter, he's only been an average shooter through his career.

Torrey Craig: Craig might command more than a vet minimum, but if the Warriors could get him, that would be a steal. He stretches the floor, rebounds, and defends well, which would be perfect as a backup to Kevon Looney. He does, however, have a tendency to make head scratching plays, which we all know can get a player glued to Kerr's bench.

Yuta Watanabe: It's incredible that a guy who is under 30, shot over 40% from three, and is a plus defender is not only available, but projected to be a vet minimum player. Putting him on the floor with Steph and Klay would give him more open looks than he could ever dream of.

The Known Quantities: The Dubs could also bring back players we know all about. Last year, the vibes were off. Who better to reset that locker room than Juan Toscano-Anderson or Damion Lee? Why not roll the dice and see if Lester Quinones' fantastic G-League season was a fluke? I'm sure there are many in Dub Nation who would hate these moves, but they have some upside (and I will always have a soft spot in my heart for JTA).

May 16, 20231 Comment

What Comes Next?

By: Matt Anderson

The 2022-2023 Warriors did not defend their title. In fact, there were only a handful of moments this season where that even felt like a real possibility. Starting with The Punch, the vibes of this team felt completely off all year. The team played sloppily, displayed a surprising lack of urgency, and could rarely sustain any sort of positive momentum. I spent much of the season with feelings of distrust and frustration permeating my relationship with the one team I truly love.

The question now is what do the Warriors do next? The team has a truly ludicrous payroll and is about to face extremely stiff penalties under a new collective bargaining agreement. Owner Joe Lacob has said that he is not afraid to spend money on a title contending team. He has also stated that he wants to build a franchise like the San Antonio Spurs: one that is always in the conversation of elite franchises. That is where the "two timelines" plan came from.

But, one thing we learned the hard way this season is that the "two timelines" strategy is not working. I think there was an admission of that by trading James Wiseman. Jordan Poole, Jonathan Kuminga, and Moses Moody are or can be useful players, but it remains to be seen if their usefulness will line up with the core of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green's ability to play at an elite level. So, Lacob has a choice: go for more titles with the Core Three or be content to be somewhere around the playoff/play-in bubble for the foreseeable future and keep developing young talent.

This should be an easy answer: the Warriors have a literal top 10 all time player in Steph, as well as two sure-fire Hall of Famers in Klay and Dray. Those three showed this year that there is still plenty of gas left in their collective tank. Combine that with last year's title, it is proof that with the right complimentary pieces, this team can be elite. The Warriors should go all-in for as many titles as they can get in the next three to four years. So, what needs to happen with the current roster to get this team back there? Let's go player by player.

First, There are four players that are untouchable right now: Steph, Klay, Dray, and Kevon Looney. Yes, the team needs to work out a new deal for Draymond this summer. But it should be priority one. Priority two should be getting an extension inked for Klay. Hopefully, these deals will be similar to what Andrew Wiggins took last year, which was less than the max. Every dollar they can save between Klay and Dray can be useful.

Speaking of Wiggins, he and Gary Payton II are in the next tier of players on this roster. We will call that tier the "Super Important, but Not Untouchable" tier. These guys are key to the team's success for the unglamorous things they do, especially on defense. Also, the team is super important to them, as Golden State is the place where they both unlocked their best selves. Wiggins and GP2 should be Warriors for at least the remainder of their deals, but the Front Office should not immediately hang up on any call asking about them. If moving them is the cost of getting a player who puts the team as an obvious title favorite, it should at least be considered.

Next, we have the 50/50 guys. These are JP, JK, Moody and Donte DiVincenzo. DDV is in this category because it's truly 50/50 on whether he will be back next year. He has a player option for next season, so he can opt out and become a free agent. If that happens, then the only chance the Warriors would have to retain his services are if no one else wants him and he comes back on a veteran's minimum. I just don't know if he played himself into a contract worth more than $4.725 million, so we can't say what he will do.

The other three are quite a different problem. The question for them is whether the team thinks they still have value on the floor, or if the value comes from who they can be move for. Poole is the fulcrum around which this group of three pivots. He clearly has talent; he averaged over 20 points per game. And, as Steph gets older, there is wisdom in having someone like the best version of JP to lighten Steph's load. But will this franchise ever see the best version of Poole again? The man undeniably works incredibly hard at his game. I have no doubt that whatever he wants, he can achieve. It is just entirely unclear what he wants. Did The Punch sour him on this franchise? Can he continue to coexist with Draymond? Does he want to be the team's Sixth Man, or does he want to be a number one option somewhere else? Does he want to commit to being at least a C+ defender? Only Jordan knows the answers to these questions, and those answers are crucial to what the Warriors do with him.

For JK and Moody, so much depends upon Poole because if the conclusion is that the team needs to move Poole, then they would and should be considered possible pieces to put in the deal. Both have shown enough at times to possibly entice a team looking to bring in a bunch of young, talented players. And given what we have seen from Kuminga and Moses, it would be fair to them to move them where they can play if the powers that be determine there is not a consistent, night-to-night role for them.

In short, Poole, Kuminga, and Moody are the three players the Warriors need to figure out to become contenders again. If there were a team with an older star that's looking to reboot itself around younger talent, these three could serve as enticing trade pieces. The problem is that Poole and Kuminga are probably at their lowest values right now after a dismal playoffs. The catch-22, however, is that if they start next season well enough to raise their stock, the Warriors probably would neither want nor need to trade them. It is a tricky situation that I do not envy this Front Office from trying to sort out.

The next tier consists of the players who are going to be on the roster whether we like it or not. That consists of two players: Patrick Baldwin, Jr. and Ryan Rollins. PBJ is actually intriguing, as a 6'9 wing who can theoretically shoot. I know Kerr is never a fan of young players, but I could see some positive minutes from him next year. The same cannot be said of Ryan Rollins. He was a second round flier that does not appear to have panned out. Oh well.

The penultimate tier is the two-way guys: Ty Jerome and Lester Quinones. As of right now, it appears the Warriors will have at least three roster spots to fill. Depending on what happens with the 50/50 guys, I could see Jerome being the back up point guard. He's a smart player who could provide steady, mistake-free minutes for Kerr. Quinones was pretty great in the G-League this year, averaging 21.8 points on 45/35/78 shooting, 7 rebounds and nearly 5 assists. He could provide value in spot minutes if he can keep up that general efficiency.

The last groups is what I'll call the "Thank You For Your Service" group. That earnestly applies to the retiring Andre Iguodala. We could have used a healthy Iggy in the playoffs this year, or his roster spot during the regular season. It sarcastically applies to JaMychal Green and Anthony Lamb. JG was what he's always been, a great role player on paper who never actually lived up to the hype. The less we say about Anthony Lamb, the better. The Warriors can find plenty of players who can hit threes at a slightly above average clip and miss defensive assignments that have not been sued for rape.*

*As a firm believer in appeasing the basketball gods, one cannot help but wonder if the cursed feeling of this season has a little bit to do with the inexcusable choice by the Front Office to employ someone involved in such atrocious allegations.

In short, as many smarter people have already written, the Warriors have a lot of soul searching to do this offseason. And that centers almost entirely around two decisions: (1) what to do with Draymond's contract; and (2) what to do with Poole, Kuminga, and Moody. The cool thing about all of this is that we will all get to see those answers play out over the next twelve months.

March 9, 2023No Comments

The Warriors Struggle to Flip a Switch… But Which One?

The Warriors scored 128 points Monday night on the back of Stephen Curry’s remarkably efficient 40-point performance (61/63/100 shooting splits). The world’s greatest shooter hit 10 threes for the twenty-third time in his career. These ingredients would typically convert to a dominant win by the dubs. Not this season, as the team fell 128-137 (yes...137) to the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Warriors are severely lacking any semblance of a consistent identity on the road – especially on the defensive end of the floor. Despite the third best defensive rating at home this season (110.0) behind only the Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers, the Dubs are 16th in DRTG on the road. Sure, this may be in part due to Wiggins' absence and GPII’s lingering abdominal injury that has prevented him from seeing the floor in blue and gold this season, but based on the eye test, even 16th feels generous.

With Stephen Curry’s return on Sunday vs. the Lakers, you would expect the rest of the roster to play as hard – if not harder – than they were when their superstar was out for 11 games. But, as has been the case all season, this team expects Steph to do it all. Curry tried to practically will the Warriors to a win Tuesday night, while everybody else threw up the white flag. The Thunder are a solid offensive team full of young energy, but 137 points against a supposed “contender” is far too many.

The common narrative amongst fans is that there is trouble brewing in the locker room. What’s more likely is that these issues have been present all season, but they’re just becoming more apparent now as frustration builds around the team’s inability to win on the road (7-25!). Draymond Green’s attitude after Jordan Poole waving him off vs. the Thunder wasn’t just unacceptable – it represents a leader who has given up on his team. As a fan it’s disappointing… but can you blame him?

The front office and coaching staff (particularly Steve Kerr) have been unable to agree on many of the main issues facing the team and its future, and it has become frustratingly obvious that the construction of the current Warriors roster is half-assed.

Some seem to think that the “two-timeline plan” succeeded, but that isn’t the case. The Dubs’ championship roster last year included proven players like Otto Porter Jr., Nemanja Bjelica, and GPII – all of which are not or have not been present this year. This year, young players are more plentiful on the roster. Yet, they still haven’t gotten a chance to develop (see James Wiseman) because the vets aren’t ready to throw it all away to help a younger core learn the game and play through their mistakes.

Joe Lacob wants to have his cake and eat it too. Using your number two overall draft pick on a player who has next to zero high-level competitive basketball experience rather than trading the asset for a game ready vet or two doesn’t exactly scream win now. The Big 3 are fed up with ownership’s lack of faith in their title window, and the young talent is walking on thin ice because they’re afraid to make mistakes. The onus doesn’t fall in the players here – the vets nor the young guys; it falls on the billionaire who thinks he’s above the system. There’s a reason no team has ever pulled off what Lacob is attempting.

Joe Lacob's two-timeline plan is on thin ice.

The Warriors have been able to cover up their unhappiness at home with the crowd behind them – pretending as if everything is okay. But once this team goes on the road and the opponent makes a run with fans taunting to boot, the cracks begin to show. As Steph said following Monday night’s loss to the Thunder, “emotions are all over the place.”

Everybody is expecting the Warriors to flip a switch, but there are simply too many switches to flip. Even if one switch is flipped on, there’s still six more on standby. To make the existing issues worse, the Warriors’ approach has been to chuck up 50+ threes per game, which conveys lazy basketball. To exemplify this, Jordan Poole is shooting just 33.3% from the field and 25.4% from three – on 8 attempts per game – since the all-star break. Time is running out for the Warriors to find themselves.

Watch for Stephen Curry to come out hot once again as the Dubs face off against Dillon Brooks and the Ja-less Memphis Grizzlies this afternoon at 4:30pm PST to close out the road trip. Draymond released a heated (and hilarious) response on his podcast yesterday (he’s still doing that thing?) to Brooks’ jabs, so tensions are sure to be as high as ever. Let’s see if the rest of the team can step up to the plate.

March 6, 2023No Comments

Anthony Davis and His Minions Squander Steph Curry’s Return

What is it with role players vs. the Warriors, anyways? The Tony Brown Jr. and Dennis Schroder dagger threes late in the fourth quarter were beyond infuriating… because neither of those players are particularly good. But time after time, bench players go off against the Dubs. See Naz Reed putting up a career high in points and looking near-unstoppable just last week. I get it, the defending champs always will always have a target on their back. But c’mon.

The Lakers big man put up 39/8/6 on great efficiency to trounce the Warriors 113-105 on Sunday afternoon in Stephen Curry and Andre Iguodala’s return to action. Anthony Davis’ size and shot-making ability in the paint proved to be too much for the Warriors interior defense – and it also didn’t help that Draymond Green is courageously playing through what seems to be multiple painful injuries. Say what you will about that man, he is a winner with a drive rivaled by few.

Steph was Steph in this one, but it was obvious his legs aren’t quite underneath him yet. More than one three-point attempt bounced off the front of the rim — granted, this is expected as he has missed the last 11 games with a leg injury. Despite conditioning issues, #30 put up 19 points on 56/50/100 shooting splits in a monstrous fourth quarter that nearly pushed the Dubs over the edge.

This game really wasn’t all bad for the Warriors. Had the they not gone down 20+ points in the first quarter, the end result likely would have been much different. But, with an awkward loss to start a three-game road trip, the Dubs fall to a staggering 0-18 on the season in games on the road they are trailing when entering the fourth quarter.

Andre looked good in ways that can’t be measured by a stat sheet or box score, but it is apparent he is not the athlete he once was. He needs to shake off the rust, too, as Davis fooled the veteran defender on a rip through foul late in the fourth.

Good for a combined 5-21 from the field, Jordan Poole and Jonathan Kuminga had a night to forget. After a string of solid games from the young pair, this performance felt uncharacteristic. Consistency is key for a team with championship aspirations, but the young players on this two-timeline roster will have off nights more frequently than seasoned vets would.

Heading to Oklahoma City on Tuesday, the squad will be without Anthony Lamb – that is until he is most likely converted to a roster spot – now that he has reached his 50-game mark. Lamb has been the fans’ favorite scapegoat – and sometimes for good reason. You may have noticed his turnover late in the fourth that visibly bothered Steph and extinguished the Warriors’ chance at pulling this one out, despite pulling it within one multiple times.

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